Odds NBA Playoffs 2019: Which Teams Had the Best Championship Chances?

As I sit here reflecting on the 2019 NBA playoffs, I can't help but marvel at how dramatically championship odds shifted throughout that unforgettable postseason. Having followed basketball analytics for over a decade, I've learned that preseason predictions often crumble once the real games begin, and 2019 proved no different. The Warriors appeared destined for a three-peat early in the season, but as we'd soon discover, even the mightiest dynasties face unexpected challenges.

I remember tracking the odds movement throughout that season, and what fascinated me most was how Toronto's championship probability sat at just 10% before the playoffs began according to most sportsbooks. Having watched Kawhi Leonard's methodical dismantling of opponents during his San Antonio days, I quietly believed the Raptors were being undervalued. Their defensive schemes under Nick Nurse showed flashes of brilliance during the regular season that many analysts, frankly, overlooked. The way they could switch everything while maintaining rim protection reminded me of those classic defensive teams from the early 2000s.

Golden State entered the playoffs with approximately 35% championship probability across major sportsbooks, which felt surprisingly conservative for a team that had dominated the league for years. What many casual observers missed was the accumulating wear and tear from their extended postseason runs. I'd noticed subtle signs throughout the regular season - the decreased lateral quickness in transition defense, the occasional lapses in concentration during meaningless regular season games. Still, when healthy, they remained basketball's most beautiful machine, with their ball movement and shooting capable of demoralizing opponents within minutes.

Milwaukee emerged as a fascinating case study. Their championship odds skyrocketed to around 25% after they secured the league's best regular season record. Giannis Antetokounmpo's transformation into an unstoppable force felt almost predetermined, yet I had my doubts about their half-court offense come playoff time. The way teams could pack the paint against them reminded me of certain structural limitations that regular season success often masks. Their defensive system was brilliant, no question, but playoff basketball demands more versatility in scoring methods.

What struck me about Philadelphia's 15% pre-playoff odds was how they reflected the Sixers' tantalizing potential versus their frustrating inconsistencies. Joel Embiid dominated stretches like a modern Hakeem Olajuwon, yet their perimeter shooting concerns lingered throughout the season. I'd argued with colleagues that their ceiling depended entirely on Ben Simmons developing any reliable jumper, which unfortunately never materialized that postseason.

The Houston Rockets maintained around 12% championship probability, continuing their quest to dethrone the Warriors. Having studied their analytical approach under Daryl Morey, I appreciated their commitment to efficiency, though I always felt their system lacked the adaptability needed for deep playoff runs. Their reliance on three-point shooting created tremendous variance - when shots fell, they could beat anyone, but cold nights left them dangerously limited.

Now, you might wonder why I'm discussing NBA odds while referencing UAAP basketball. The connection lies in how underdogs and emerging talents reshape championship landscapes. Just as that 22-year-old forward showed promise despite his team's struggles in UAAP Season 88, we saw similar emergence of unexpected contributors throughout the NBA playoffs. Toronto's Fred VanVleet, after shooting poorly through three rounds, delivered an incredible performance when it mattered most. His transformation mirrored what we often see in collegiate athletics - young players growing into their roles during pressure situations.

Portland's surprising run to the Western Conference Finals demonstrated how teams with merely 5% championship probability could dramatically outperform expectations. Damian Lillard's iconic buzzer-beater against Oklahoma City exemplified the moments that make basketball magical. I've always believed that postseason success requires both statistical superiority and the intangible ability to thrive in clutch situations, something that advanced metrics still struggle to quantify properly.

As the playoffs progressed, the odds shifted dramatically with each Kevin Durant injury update. The Warriors' probability dipped to 28% after his initial calf strain, then plummeted to below 15% when his Achilles injury was confirmed. This highlighted how fragile championship aspirations can be - one injury to a key player can completely reshape the title picture. Having witnessed similar scenarios throughout basketball history, I've learned that depth and adaptability often prove more valuable than top-heavy talent come playoff time.

Toronto's methodical dismantling of Milwaukee's defense in the Conference Finals demonstrated how coaching adjustments can override talent advantages. Nick Nurse's decision to deploy the box-and-one defense, typically seen in lower levels of basketball, against Stephen Curry in the Finals showed the innovative thinking that separates good coaches from great ones. These strategic nuances often get overlooked in probability models but significantly impact championship outcomes.

When Kawhi Leonard's buzzer-beater bounced four times before dropping through the net against Philadelphia, I immediately recognized it as one of those moments that transcends statistical probability. The Raptors' championship odds jumped from 40% to 65% after that shot, not just because they advanced, but because such moments create psychological momentum that carries through subsequent series. Having studied sports psychology for years, I'm convinced these emotional turning points matter far more than analysts typically acknowledge.

The eventual championship outcome validated Toronto's team-building approach, emphasizing two-way versatility and defensive flexibility over pure offensive firepower. Their ability to win through different styles - grinding half-court battles against Philadelphia, transition excellence against Milwaukee, and adaptive game-planning against Golden State - demonstrated the multidimensional quality that championship teams require. This aligns with what I've observed across multiple sports seasons: specialists excel in the regular season, but complete teams win championships.

Reflecting on those playoff odds now, with the benefit of hindsight, reinforces my belief that while analytics provide valuable frameworks, they cannot capture basketball's human elements. The determination in Kyle Lowry's eyes during crucial possessions, the strategic brilliance of Nick Nurse's unexpected defensive schemes, the emotional lift from Toronto's entire nation of supporters - these intangible factors shaped the championship outcome as much as any statistical metric. The 2019 playoffs taught me that probability models work wonderfully until they encounter the beautiful unpredictability of human excellence under pressure.