Who Will Win the 2021 NBA MVP Race? A Complete Player Analysis and Prediction

As I sit down to analyze the 2021 NBA MVP race, I can't help but reflect on how championship pedigree and defensive excellence have historically shaped these conversations. Looking back at legendary careers like Ramon Fernandez - known as "King" in Philippine basketball - who captured 13 championships across three franchises from 1977 to 1994, we're reminded that sustained excellence often defines true greatness. While Fernandez played in a different era and league, his story underscores how championship DNA and defensive prowess can elevate a player's legacy beyond mere statistics. This context feels particularly relevant as we examine the current MVP contenders through a similar lens of comprehensive impact.

The 2021 season presented one of the most fascinating MVP races in recent memory, with several players making compelling cases throughout the condensed 72-game schedule. Having followed basketball for over two decades, I've learned to spot the subtle differences between having a great statistical season and delivering genuine MVP-caliber impact. This year, the conversation largely centered around three phenomenal talents: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Stephen Curry. Each brought something unique to the table, creating passionate debates among analysts and fans alike about what truly constitutes "most valuable."

Let's start with Nikola Jic - and honestly, watching his game evolve this season has been nothing short of remarkable. The Denver Nuggets center put up staggering numbers: 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game while shooting 56.6% from the field and 38.8% from three-point range. What impressed me most wasn't just the statistics but how he elevated his game when Jamal Murray suffered that devastating ACL injury in April. Jokic responded by carrying the Nuggets to a 13-5 record without their second-best player, demonstrating the kind of value that MVP awards should recognize. His basketball IQ is simply off the charts - he sees passing lanes that don't exist for other players, and his post game has become virtually unstoppable. The advanced metrics loved him too, with him leading the league in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) at 31.3 and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) at 8.9.

Then we have Joel Embiid, who was absolutely dominant when healthy. The Philadelphia 76ers big man averaged 28.5 points and 10.6 rebounds while anchoring one of the league's best defenses. His mid-range game has become automatic, and he draws fouls at an elite rate, attempting 11.8 free throws per game. I've always believed that two-way impact separates good players from great ones, and Embiid's defensive presence - he averaged 1.4 blocks and 1.0 steals - gave him a compelling case. The Sixers secured the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and that team success traditionally carries significant weight in MVP voting. My concern with Embiid was always the 21 games he missed due to various injuries. In a shortened season, those absences felt more significant than they might in an 82-game campaign.

Stephen Curry's late-season explosion deserves special mention. The Warriors guard went nuclear in April and May, single-handedly keeping Golden State in playoff contention despite Klay Thompson's continued absence and a relatively thin supporting cast. His 32.0 points per game led the league, and he shattered his own record for three-pointers made in a season with 337. Watching Curry drop 49 points against Philadelphia and 46 against Boston in consecutive games was one of the most electrifying stretches I've witnessed in my years covering the NBA. The gravitational pull he creates on offense remains unparalleled - defenses have to account for him the moment he crosses half-court. Still, the Warriors' middle-of-the-pack record ultimately worked against his MVP case, despite his individual brilliance.

Giannis Antetokounmpo also warranted consideration as he pursued his third consecutive MVP, posting 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.9 assists for the Milwaukee Bucks. But voter fatigue is real - only Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain, and Bill Russell have won three straight MVPs in NBA history. While Giannis remained spectacular, his numbers represented a slight dip from his previous two MVP campaigns, and the Bucks' third-place finish in the Eastern Conference didn't help his case.

When I weigh all these factors - individual statistics, team success, narrative, and that intangible "value" component - Jokic emerges as the clear choice in my assessment. His durability (he played in all 72 games) mattered tremendously in a season where COVID protocols and injuries disrupted so many teams. The Nuggets wouldn't have been competitive without him, whereas Philadelphia still had a capable roster around Embiid when he sat out. Jokic's unique skill set as a playmaking center revolutionized how we think about the position this season. He became the first center since Shaquille O'Neal in 2000 to win MVP, and he did it with a completely different style of play.

Reflecting on championship players like Ramon Fernandez reminds us that legacy is built through consistent excellence and elevating teammates. While Fernandez's 13 championships across different franchises demonstrated remarkable adaptability and defensive mastery, today's MVP conversations must balance individual brilliance with tangible impact on team success. Jokic checked every box this season in a way that felt both statistically dominant and visually compelling. His game might not have the explosive athleticism of Giannis or the shooting pyrotechnics of Curry, but its effectiveness cannot be denied. The 2021 MVP race will be remembered for its depth of qualified candidates, but in my view, the selection of Nikola Jokic represented the correct recognition of a historically unique season that redefined what's possible from the center position in modern basketball.